Indian pharma eyes $11-bn Covid vax opportunity

India's pharmaceutical sector is looking at an opportunity to the tune of $10billion to 11 bn in the form of Covid-19 vaccine supply, in both domestic and export markets in the next three years, rating agency Care Ratings has said in a report.

However, the Indian vaccine makers are unlikely to get the premium pricing being enjoyed by US-based multinational companies, which get anywhere between $15 and 25 per dose, their average realization could remain anywhere between $3.25 and $3.50 per dose, it said. "On an aggregate level (i.e., domestic plus export), CARE Ratings expects supply opportunity of at least around $10-11 billion during the next three years for the Indian vaccine manufacturers," the report said.

According to CARE Ratings, the majority of domestic demand is expected to be fulfilled by March 2022, when the export opportunities in the high-income markets such as Europe, North America and developed Asian countries are likely to be completely exhausted. However, the export opportunities in various African, Asian excluding China and Japan and some South American countries, where the pace of vaccination remains very slow would still exist, which is expected to remain greater than 1.25 billion doses, it said.

As of August 10, 2021, over 4.35 billion Covid-19 vaccine shots have been administered globally. The USA, China and most of the European countries have vaccinated more than 50 per cent of their total eligible population with at least one dose. According to the experts of several infectious diseases, more than 70 per cent of the world's population needs to be vaccinated in order to achieve a safe environment from Covid-19, the rating agency noted. Up to August 10, 2021, India had administered around 500 million (50 crore) Covid-19 vaccine doses and will require to administer at least another two billion vaccine doses.